Q3 2023 Quarterly Newsletter

What follows is our Q3 2023 Quarterly Newsletter. Want in on the action? Scroll to the very bottom of the page to sign up.

— —

Fall isn’t the only thing in the air. As the leaves change, there’s economic uncertainty floating around, too. We’ll try to make sense of it, tell you our approach, and then wrap things up with a handy list of definitions of terms we throw around often.

Lastly, we’ve finally completed our transition to Schwab. (Hold for applause.) Scroll to the end for a reminder on how to access your Client Portal.

We’re here for you,

The Copia Team

— —

Market Update

 

Major U.S. Stock Market index performance over the trailing 3-month period (data as of Oct 31):

  • S&P 500 -8.41%
  • Nasdaq Composite -9.97%
  • Russell 2000 -16.75%
  • Dow Jones Industrial -7.11%

Obviously, the most talked about topic in financial media throughout 2023 (and 2022, as well) continues to be the Federal Reserve’s penchant policy of raising interest rates to combat the rampant inflation that peaked in late 2021. In many ways, this policy decision has helped – all the major inflation indicators have certainly seen a decreasing rate of change since that time. However, in the 3rd Quarter of 2023, reported inflation expectations saw a positive inflection, which is at least mildly concerning with regard to how long the Fed continues to raise rates or at least keep them elevated.

At the same time, the U.S. economy’s growth expectations are slowing with increasing concerns for a domestic recession arriving as soon as early 2024. These two diverging conditions – increasing inflation and decreasing economic growth – are what the markets are currently trying to price in, hence the recent increased market volatility and the broad negative stock performance. It is important to remember that the equity markets tend to be leading indicators of the state of the economy – meaning what the market is pricing now is often reflected in the economy within 6-12 months.

It is equally important to note that recession“expectations” amongst Wall St. economists have been predicted (incorrectly)since Q1 of 2022 – so just because the probability of an outcome may increase, by no means does that make it a guarantee to occur. In addition, there is no certainty as to the length or depth of an economic recession, nor is it easy to predict when or how quickly markets will recover from hampered economic conditions. There have been 13 documented recessions since World War II (defined as two consecutive quarters of GDP decline). Surprisingly, the S&P 500 actually rose an average of just over 1% during all recession periods since 1945.

This is precisely why we subscribe to “modern portfolio theory” which preaches broad diversification, patience, and discipline. Most self-directed investors think that “running for the hills” and waiting until the economy turns around is a sound investment strategy when financial media is discussing economic worries, geopolitical issues, inflation expectations, and political tensions at a higher rate. However historical data shows that the market bottoms out roughly four months before the end of the recession, on average. And when recoveries begin, they typically happen very quickly, and missing out on the early stages of a market recovery leads to significant underperformance.

So while equity portfolios are down nearly across the board over the short time period of the past few months, at Copia we have continued to add to and overweight areas of the market that historically have had outperformance in similar setups as our current situation. Those asset classes include Commodities, Energy, Precious Metals, Small Caps and International Markets. In more conservative portfolios, we also continue to implement our fixed-income strategy of owning physical bonds in the form of U.S. Treasury Bills. In conjunction with the Fed raising rates, the 6-month Treasury Bill just recently touched 5.6% yield – and these bonds are exempt from state income taxes, making them attractive short-term investments to help smooth out elevated volatility in equity portfolios.

Interestingly, the month of November has historically been the best performing month for stocks, on average. We are already seeing a bounce from “oversold” conditions, with most of the aforementioned U.S. Indices already up over 2% this month in just a couple of trading days. Even with all of the negative sentiment and incoming economic data, don’t be surprised if markets continue to see a rally from these recent oversold levels, and potentially even a “Santa Claus rally” into December.

Ultimately, we are very aware of how unsettling this market can be! It’s not easy to watch account values diminish as market prices fall …And we certainly are anticipating some continued headwinds and elevated volatility in the coming months. But as we have said many times before, the best course of action when markets struggle is to sit back, remove any emotion you may have, and trust in the plan.

— — 

Glossary of Common Terms

Not all investors understand all of our jargon. We thought it’d be helpful to provide a running “Glossary of Terms” to help clarify some terms that are common to us!

 

  • S&P 500 Index – a group of stocks representing the 500 largest companies in the U.S. by market capitalization
  • Nasdaq Composite Index – a broad index of over 2,500 stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange heavily weighted toward the Technology sector
  • Russell 2000 Index – a market index comprised of 2,000 SmallCap companies
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average – a stock index that tracks the share prices of 30 of the largest U.S. companies
  • Market Capitalization (or “cap” for short) – the value of a company represented by the price of the stock multiplied by the number of shares outstanding.
  • Small Cap – a stock from a public company whose total market value is under $2 billion
  • Mid Cap – a stock from a public company whose total market value is between $2 and $10 billion
  • Large Cap – a stock from a public company whose total market value is greater than $10 billion
  • Volatility – a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index – often it refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk related to a security’s value.
  • GDP – Gross Domestic Product measures the monetary of final and services produced in a country in a given period of time
  • Recession – a period of temporary economic decline generally defined by a fall in GDP in two consecutive quarters

— —

Schwab Transition Finalized

Our long-anticipated transition of custodian from TD Ameritrade to Charles Schwab was smoothly completed over Labor Day Weekend. As a reminder, this means that clients can no longer access their account(s)online through TD Ameritrade’s website. In order to see your important account details, we encourage you to continue to use our custom Client Portal through our website, or you can also create a new username and password in the Schwab Client Center.

Our Client Portal is a very robust tool that we encourage all clients to maximize! The client dashboard in this portal offers a myriad of tools and features that can help you on your financial journey. This includes, but is not limited to, all the following:

  • A secure client Vault where we upload and share quarterly performance reports, account statements, and other important financial documents
  • Extensive, fully customizable performance metrics
  • Portfolio analytics, where you can break down your portfolio’s allocation, positions, projected income, etc.
  • Net Worth tracking tools that allow you to link outside accounts, including checking & savings, company 401k’s, and more
  • Easy access to review details of your long-term financial plan we have built-in MoneyGuidePro (if you haven’t gone through the MoneyGuidePro process with us yet, let us know if that is of interest to you!)
  • And much, much more

If you need any assistance getting access to Black Diamond, or you have misplaced your login credentials, please reach out to Geoff or George in the office so that they can get you set up!

Scroll to Top

We’ve moved!

Visit us at our new office:

572 SW Bluff Dr #100
Bend, OR 97702

Relationship Specialist

Ben
Graziani

Another accomplished local student-athlete joins the Copia family.

Ben grew up in Palm Desert, California, before moving to Bend, Oregon, right before high school. 

Ben Graziani

He graduated in 2018 from Summit High with a 4.0 GPA, lettering for three years at wide receiver and helping the Storm football team to an OSAA Class 5A State Championship and back-to-back Mountain Valley Conference Championships. He was named a first-team all-league and second-team all-state selection in football. Additionally, he was part of a State Championship 4×400-meter relay team as a junior. He also lettered in basketball.

After high school, he attended Southern Oregon University, where he earned an undergraduate degree in Business with a concentration in Finance. He was a member of the school’s leadership council for three years. He also played football for five years for the Raiders, scoring 8 touchdowns in 13 total starts in a career shortened due to Covid-19 and a collarbone injury. Post-college, he joined the Summit HS football staff as the Varsity Wide Receivers Coach.

 

Ben football

Ben is extremely close with his family. His parents, Tony and Sarah, live and work in Bend, and his younger brother (Montana State) and sister (University of Oregon) both currently attend college. He feels super fortunate to join the Copia team because of how much they value relationships and often put others before themselves. He is super excited to meet all the members of the Copia family and is ready to help in any way that he can!

Ben Fam

Relationship Specialist

George Mendazona

George graduated from Redmond's Ridgeview High School in 2016, following a standout prep baseball career.

George grew up in Madras, Oregon, and graduated from Ridgeview High School in Redmond in 2016, after a standout athletic career where he was an OSAA All-State performer in baseball (three times), basketball (twice), and football (once). He was also recognized as the Intermountain Conference Player of the Year in both Baseball and Basketball in 2015. After high school, he was offered a roster position as an infielder for the Oregon State Beavers baseball program and was part of the 2018 NCAA National Championship team.

After four years at OSU, George transferred to Lubbock Christian University to complete his Bachelor’s Degree in Exercise Science. Instead of pursuing a professional baseball career, he put his Exercise Science degree to work, moved back to Bend, and served as a strength and conditioning coach at Boss Sports Performance.

He considers himself a family man and puts a major personal emphasis on carrying that out on a daily basis. Recognizing that Copia is a family-oriented firm with strong values consistent with his own, George is excited about building relationships with all existing and future Copia clients and is eager to apply his previous experience as a leader on elite teams to learn a new industry and business.

Chief Compliance & Operations Officer

Geoff Gruetzmacher

After serving a 17-year career in firefighting, Geoff has transitioned to wealth management.

Geoff retired from the City of Kennewick, WA Fire Department in 2020, started with Copia in 2021 and is now a fully licensed Fiduciary Advisor of Copia.

During his time as a firefighter, Geoff served as a leader of both an engine and an ambulance crew, enjoying the team aspect of the job and working to achieve a common goal.

Ultimately, Geoff simply wants to continue helping people in a meaningful way. Copia Wealth Management gladly welcomed Geoff to the team for his experience in operations and relationship building. Geoff is now a fully licensed IAR of Copia Wealth Management and always looks forward to conversations with clients. He volunteers with Bend North Little League and works with Bend area animal rescue non-profits.

Geoff graduated from Redmond High School, has been married to his wife, Lindsay (Bend High Grad) for 17 years and has three children, Halle (16), Henry (13), and Harper (10). Geoff enjoys exploring the outdoors with his family, baseball, and cooking.

Fiduciary Advisor
Chief Strategy Officer

Louis Bennett

A fifth-generation Oregonian, Louis moved to Bend in 1995.

He graduated from Bend High in 2003, and attended Point Loma Nazarene University in San Diego.

There he played college golf and graduated with a
degree in Business Administration (concentration in Finance. His work career began as a golf professional which spanned nearly a decade, serving as the Head Pro at Broken Top Club and Tetherow Resort here in Bend. Realizing that in order to continue his ascent in the golf industry that he’d likely have to move his family, and desiring to help people on a deeper level, he made a huge career change and joined the Copia team in February of 2016, and became partner a year later. He enjoys statistical analysis, strategic planning, working in a team environment, and coaching/mentoring/leadership roles.

Louis married his wife, Marrisa (a born-and-raised Bendite), in 2011, and they are proud parents of Jordyn (17), Cambria (9) and Silas (7). He still enjoys playing golf as much as he can, exploring the outdoors with his family, and coaching a variety of sports for kids of all ages, including coaching the Varsity & JV Boys Golf team at Bend High.

FIDUCIARY ADVISOR
PRESIDENT

Aaron Boehm

Aaron has built a successful financial services firm with a simple mindset: he puts relationships first.

Aaron is the President and Fiduciary Advisor of Copia Wealth Management in Bend, Oregon.

With over 20 years of experience, he has managed over $500 million in client assets and has helped hundreds of families reach their financial goals. Having started his career working on the 61st floor of the World Trade Center in New York City, Aaron now enjoys his street-level office in the Old Mill District in Bend, Oregon. But it’s the relationships he has cultivated with clients and firm partners that make Copia what it is today.

Besides serving as a fiduciary to his clients, Aaron also loves coaching baseball at various youth levels. He has been a member of the Summit High School Varsity staff for the past seven years and has run a competitive travel team for both of his boys during this same time. Most importantly, 100% of all the athletes Aaron has coached at the Varsity level have graduated from high school and the team has led the State of Oregon for team GPA five out of the past six years. Go Storm!

When he isn’t sitting on a ball bucket in the yard rooting for the boys, Aaron loves spending time with his wife Katie, sons Nolan (15) and Miles (12), and all their friends. Simple barbecues and backyard games are frequent around the Boehm home in the summers. Aaron is also very active and enjoys golf, fishing, white water rafting, and any other adventures his friends are up for.