Wars, Markets & the Case for Staying the Course

 

The S&P 500 just hit a new all-time high… in the middle of a war. That’s not a contradiction. It’s a pattern.

 

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I want to start with something that might surprise you.

Last week, the S&P 500 surged to a new all-time high of 7,147 — closing Friday at 7,126.

Let that sink in for a second. We are in the middle of an active military conflict in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz is under a dual blockade. Oil prices are up nearly 50% since February. And the U.S. stock market just set a record.

If that doesn’t match the way you feel right now… you’re not alone. That gap between what the data shows and what the headlines make you feel is exactly why I wanted to write this.

Here’s what’s actually happening. On February 28th, the U.S. and Israel launched coordinated strikes against Iran. Iran responded with missiles and drones across the region. The Strait of Hormuz — which normally handles about 20% of the world’s oil supply — went from the busiest shipping lane in the energy world to a near-standstill. A Pakistan-brokered ceasefire took effect on April 8th, and while it’s been violated by both sides, it’s holding enough that markets have responded. President Trump said late last week the conflict ‘should be ending pretty soon,’ with active negotiations underway.” A ceasefire extension is being discussed. And Israel and Lebanon agreed to a separate 10-day ceasefire last week.

Oil is now trading in the mid-$80s to low-$90s — a meaningful pullback from the $100+ levels earlier in the month.

None of this means the situation is resolved. The Strait is still blocked from both sides. Iran is threatening to expand disruptions to the Red Sea. The ceasefire expires April 22nd. There are real risks here and I’m not going to pretend otherwise.

But the market is doing what it’s always done. Pricing in the worst-case scenario fast… and then recovering as clarity emerges.

This is a good time to zoom out. Because this pattern — scary headlines, sharp drops, then recoveries that surprise everyone — isn’t new. It’s actually the most consistent pattern in market history.

Researchers have studied 20 major U.S. military interventions and geopolitical events since World War II. The average drop from the initial shock to the bottom? About 6%. The average time to recover? 28 days. And in 19 out of those 20 events, the market fully recovered.

Nineteen out of twenty.

 

Read that bottom row again. Fifty-one days into an active conflict — the largest oil supply disruption in history — and the market is at a new all-time high. I added the current conflict to the table because I think you deserve to see it in context with everything that came before it.

The Dow rose over 50% during World War II. The S&P gained more than 60% since Russia invaded Ukraine. The Iraq War saw first-year returns north of 25%. And now this.

Does that mean war is good for markets? No. That’s not the point at all. The point is that markets respond to economic fundamentals — earnings, innovation, consumer spending — more than they respond to geopolitical fear. Wars cause real disruptions. But those disruptions tend to be temporary while the engine of growth keeps running underneath.

In virtually every conflict over the last century, the single worst move an investor could have made was selling at the moment of peak fear.

Here’s how the pattern works. A surprise event causes a sharp, fast selloff. The market prices in the worst-case scenario almost immediately. Then, as clarity emerges — even if the situation is still bad, even if the war isn’t over — the market starts to recover. Not because everything is fine… but because the uncertainty decreases. Markets don’t need good news. They need less unknown.

We watched this unfold in real time. The S&P dropped nearly 10% from its January peak as the conflict escalated and oil surged. Then the ceasefire was announced. The market posted its best weekly gain since November — up 3.6% in a single week. And by yesterday, it had not only recovered all of those losses… it set a new record. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley both reported strong Q1 earnings. Tech names like Microsoft, Oracle, and ServiceNow rallied. The market found its footing.

Now… I want to be honest about what’s different here. Because blindly applying historical averages without acknowledging context isn’t how we operate.

The Middle East conflicts that caused the most lasting market damage were the ones that disrupted oil supply. In 1973 and 1990, when tensions led to actual supply constraints, the S&P declined about 16% and recoveries took longer. That’s a real parallel. The Strait of Hormuz disruption is the largest oil supply shock in history according to the IEA — global supply dropped by over 10 million barrels per day in March.

Brent crude started the year around $61. It finished Q1 above $118. Even though prices have pulled back to around $95 today, they’re still dramatically elevated. If the Strait stays blocked for six months or more, the ripple effects — on inflation, energy costs, global growth — become very real. That’s not fear-mongering. That’s just math.

The counterpoint? Markets are clearly betting this gets resolved. The ceasefire extension being discussed would buy more time for negotiations. Peace talks in Islamabad are being planned. And today’s Israel-Lebanon ceasefire opens a second front of de-escalation that didn’t exist two days ago. The trajectory matters as much as the current state.


 

What We’re Watching Right Now

 

Ceasefire extension (April 22nd deadline). This is the most important date on the calendar. If the U.S.-Iran truce extends, markets will likely continue to stabilize. If it doesn’t, expect renewed volatility.

Strait of Hormuz reopening. The economic linchpin. Both sides have it blocked right now. Every week it stays closed adds pressure to global energy prices and supply chains.

Oil trajectory. Oil has pulled back from its $100+ highs to the mid-$80s to low-$90s range. If it keeps drifting down, it signals the market believes resolution is coming.

Earnings season. Early results from the banks are strong. What matters now is how companies across sectors are absorbing higher energy costs and whether consumer spending is holding.

International diversification. This has been one of the most rewarding portfolio decisions of 2026. International stocks (MSCI EAFE) are up over 6% year-to-date. Japan’s Nikkei is up nearly 9%. Diversification is doing exactly what it’s designed to do.

So what should you do with all of this?

Honestly… the same thing that’s worked in every conflict going back a hundred years.

Stick to the plan.

I know that sounds simple. Maybe too simple for a moment that feels this complicated. But there’s a reason I keep coming back to that phrase.

We built your plan together. It wasn’t designed for a world where nothing bad ever happens. It was designed for this world — the one where wars happen, oil prices spike, and the news makes everything feel urgent. Your portfolio already accounts for the fact that the world is unpredictable. That’s the whole point.

And the market is proving it right now. Not because everything is perfect… but because the fundamentals underneath the headlines are still intact. Companies are still earning. Consumers are still spending. Innovation — especially in AI and technology — is still accelerating. Those are the things that drive long-term returns. Not the headline cycle.

Your portfolio wasn’t designed for a world where nothing bad ever happens. It was designed for the world we actually live in.

That doesn’t mean we’re sitting still. We’re watching the data every single day. If something changes materially — if the economic picture shifts in a way that requires us to act — we’ll act. That’s what active management means. But there’s a big difference between acting because the data tells us to and acting because we’re scared. Right now, the data says stay the course.

One last thing. The S&P 500 has returned roughly 10% per year on average since 1957. That number includes every war, every recession, every oil shock, every “this time is different” headline you’ve ever seen. Every single drawdown in the history of the market was a buying opportunity in hindsight.

Every one.

That doesn’t make today feel easy. But it should make it feel manageable. And that’s all we need right now.

As always — I’m here. If you want to talk through any of this, that’s what we’re here for.

 
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Accounting & Bookkeeping Specialist

Chelsea James

With a background in Human Development and Family Sciences, Chelsea brings a people-centered approach to accounting.

After completing her bachelor’s degree at OSU Cascades in 2021, she moved into bookkeeping and found a rewarding way to help individuals and businesses feel supported in managing their finances.

Coming from a family of local small business owners, Chelsea understands the hard work and the unique challenges that come with running a business. She has worked across a range of industries — healthcare, automotive, and other service-based businesses — which has sharpened her ability to read what a business actually needs and adapt to it. She values building genuine relationships and being someone people can trust.

Outside the office, you’ll likely find her discovering a new hike, casting a line on the water, or spending time with friends and family.

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Kristen Bennett

Kristen brings warmth, exceptional hospitality, and a genuine passion for people to every client interaction.

With over 10 years of experience in Portland’s hospitality and service industries, Kristen has honed her ability to create meaningful connections and deliver outstanding client experiences.

Kristen’s career includes managing Tasty n Alder, a highly regarded Portland restaurant in Chef John Gorham’s restaurant group, and has supported top-producing agents at Hasson Company, Realtors. She has an exceptional ability to anticipate needs, build relationships — expertise that translates seamlessly to serving Copia’s clients.

Kristen grew up in Hood River, Oregon, and graduated from the University of Oregon in 2009. She and her husband, Max—a Summit High School graduate—moved to Bend after getting married in 2018 and are proud to call it home. They now have two children, Briggs (6) and Gwen (4), who keep life lively and full. When she isn’t working, Kristen loves running, traveling, and spending time outdoors hiking and camping with her family.

Kristen brings her hospitality background, natural empathy, and people-first approach to a firm that shares her commitment to genuine relationships and trust. She looks forward to getting to know each client and making sure every interaction with Copia feels personal, thoughtful, and truly cared for.

Relationship Specialist

Ben
Graziani

Another accomplished local student-athlete joins the Copia family.

Ben grew up in Palm Desert, California, before moving to Bend, Oregon, right before high school. 

Ben Graziani

He graduated in 2018 from Summit High with a 4.0 GPA, lettering for three years at wide receiver and helping the Storm football team to an OSAA Class 5A State Championship and back-to-back Mountain Valley Conference Championships. He was named a first-team all-league and second-team all-state selection in football. Additionally, he was part of a State Championship 4×400-meter relay team as a junior. He also lettered in basketball.

After high school, he attended Southern Oregon University, where he earned an undergraduate degree in Business with a concentration in Finance. He was a member of the school’s leadership council for three years. He also played football for five years for the Raiders, scoring 8 touchdowns in 13 total starts in a career shortened due to Covid-19 and a collarbone injury. Post-college, he joined the Summit HS football staff as the Varsity Wide Receivers Coach.

 

Ben football

Ben is extremely close with his family. His parents, Tony and Sarah, live and work in Bend, and his younger brother (Montana State) and sister (University of Oregon) both currently attend college. He feels super fortunate to join the Copia team because of how much they value relationships and often put others before themselves. He is super excited to meet all the members of the Copia family and is ready to help in any way that he can!

Ben Fam

Relationship Specialist

George Mendazona

George graduated from Redmond's Ridgeview High School in 2016, following a standout prep baseball career.

George grew up in Madras, Oregon, and graduated from Ridgeview High School in Redmond in 2016, after a standout athletic career where he was an OSAA All-State performer in baseball (three times), basketball (twice), and football (once). He was also recognized as the Intermountain Conference Player of the Year in both Baseball and Basketball in 2015. After high school, he was offered a roster position as an infielder for the Oregon State Beavers baseball program and was part of the 2018 NCAA National Championship team.

After four years at OSU, George transferred to Lubbock Christian University to complete his Bachelor’s Degree in Exercise Science. Instead of pursuing a professional baseball career, he put his Exercise Science degree to work, moved back to Bend, and served as a strength and conditioning coach at Boss Sports Performance.

He considers himself a family man and puts a major personal emphasis on carrying that out on a daily basis. Recognizing that Copia is a family-oriented firm with strong values consistent with his own, George is excited about building relationships with all existing and future Copia clients and is eager to apply his previous experience as a leader on elite teams to learn a new industry and business.

Chief Compliance & Operations Officer

Geoff Gruetzmacher

After serving a 17-year career in firefighting, Geoff has transitioned to wealth management.

Geoff retired from the City of Kennewick, WA Fire Department in 2020, started with Copia in 2021 and is now a fully licensed Fiduciary Advisor of Copia.

During his time as a firefighter, Geoff served as a leader of both an engine and an ambulance crew, enjoying the team aspect of the job and working to achieve a common goal.

Ultimately, Geoff simply wants to continue helping people in a meaningful way. Copia Wealth Management gladly welcomed Geoff to the team for his experience in operations and relationship building. Geoff is now a fully licensed IAR of Copia Wealth Management and always looks forward to conversations with clients. He volunteers with Bend North Little League and works with Bend area animal rescue non-profits.

Geoff graduated from Redmond High School, has been married to his wife, Lindsay (Bend High Grad) for 17 years and has three children, Halle (16), Henry (13), and Harper (10). Geoff enjoys exploring the outdoors with his family, baseball, and cooking.

Fiduciary Advisor
Chief Strategist

Louis Bennett

A fifth-generation Oregonian, Louis moved to Bend in 1995.

He graduated from Bend High School and earned a degree in Business Administration with a 

concentration in Finance from Point Loma Nazarene University, where he also competed in collegiate golf.

Louis began his professional career in the golf industry, spending nearly a decade as a golf professional, including roles as Head Professional at Broken Top Club and Tetherow Resort. In 2016, seeking a deeper, long-term impact, he transitioned into wealth management, joined Copia, and became a partner the following year.

Role & Expertise


As Fiduciary Advisor & Chief Strategist, Louis leads portfolio construction and investment management while overseeing long-term financial planning strategy. He is known for his tactical mindset, analytical rigor, and ability to bring clarity to complex financial decisions. He especially enjoys working with families and business owners focused on preserving, growing, and stewarding wealth across generations.

Advisory Philosophy


Louis believes strong relationships, clear communication, and trust are foundational to effective advising. With a particular interest in investor psychology, he helps clients navigate market volatility with discipline and perspective, ensuring short-term noise does not derail long-term plans.

Leadership & Community


Louis is deeply committed to the Central Oregon community and has served on multiple nonprofit boards. He currently sits on the boards of Warrior Impact and the Central Oregon Sportsplex Alliance.

Personal

 
Louis lives in Bend with his wife, Marrisa, and their three children, Jordyn, Cambria, and Silas. Outside of work, he enjoys golf, spending time outdoors with his family, and coaching youth sports.

FIDUCIARY ADVISOR
PRESIDENT

Aaron Boehm

Aaron advises high-net-worth families, business owners, and executives with complex financial lives.

Experience & Background

With more than 25 years in financial services, Aaron

has managed over $500 million in client assets and guided hundreds of clients through multiple market cycles. His work is grounded in disciplined asset management, thoughtful portfolio construction, and a clear understanding of risk, performance, and long-term goals.

He began his career in New York City, working on the 61st floor of the World Trade Center, and now leads Copia Wealth Management from Bend’s Old Mill District—combining institutional experience with the discretion of a boutique advisory firm.

Areas of Expertise

Aaron specializes in comprehensive asset management and performance-driven portfolio strategy, including asset allocation, investment selection, risk management, and ongoing evaluation. He works closely with clients to align portfolios with balance-sheet needs, liquidity, tax considerations, and long-term objectives.

He brings particular experience supporting business owners and executives through concentrated positions, liquidity events, and the transition to diversified portfolios, often collaborating with clients’ tax and legal advisors.

Fiduciary Philosophy

As a fiduciary, Aaron emphasizes governance, transparency, and accountability. He believes strong investment outcomes result from disciplined process, prudent risk management, and steady decision-making over time.

 

Leadership & Community

Aaron is an active community leader and serves as Head Varsity Baseball Coach at Summit High School, where his teams consistently excel both academically and competitively.

Personal

Aaron lives in Bend with his wife, Katie, and their two sons, Nolan and Miles. He enjoys golf, fishing, white-water rafting, and spending time outdoors with family and friends.